Impact of events in Belarus on the safety and security of the Baltic States
At the time of publication of the report, the situation in the Baltic region was exacerbated by the decision of the Russian Federation to bring tens of thousands of soldiers close to the Ukrainian border. The subject is multifaceted, and this analysis is largely forward-looking. In order to understand how the events in Belarus may affect the security of the Baltic States, the parts concerning Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were written by different authors, and therefore the texts stand alone and are different in style. The authors of each country have relied on available sources and their own knowledge.
Forword ; 1. The impact of the events in Belarus on the saftey and security of the Baltic States on the example of Estonia ; Introduction ; 1.1 General information ; 1.2 The political dimension of Russia and Belarus ; 1.3 Economic policy situation in Belarus ; 1.4. Crime forecast for Belarus ; 1.5. Impact of developments in Belarus on EU border management and migration ; Summary and conclusions ; Used sources ; 2. Forecast for the security of the Baltic States in the event of increased pressure from Russia on Belarus: the case of Latvia ; Introduction ; 2.1. State Of relations between Latvia and Belarus ; 2.3. First scenario: power vacuum in Belarus ; 2.4. Second scenario: integration of Russia and Belarus into a Federal State ; Summary ; Used sources ; 3. Continuing crisis In the Republic of Belarus: forecast of development of factors affecting the national security of the Republic of Lithuania ; Introduction ; 3.1. Personal factors ; 3.2. External factors ; 3.3. Belarus crisis and its possible impact on Lithuania ; 3.4. Economic relations between Lithuania and Belarus ; Conclusions ; Used sources