Security problems caused to the Republic of Lithuania by the Ukrainian war and Belorussian hybrid attacks

Abstract

The second stage of Russia’s war against Ukraine began on 24 February 2022, with a new invasion into other parts of Ukraine and the occupation of more territories. This invasion led to a massive influx of refugees from Ukraine into other countries, including the Baltic States, in search of shelter. It brought new challenges to the national security of the Republic of Lithuania and other countries as they anticipated the Russian Federation’s next moves. Another event with relevance to the national security of the Baltic States is the fraudulent Belarusian election of 2020 and the subsequent migration crisis. As these two events are closely intertwined, they will be jointly analysed in this paper. Despite their different natures and essences, they serve as entry points for an analysis of the threats and challenges to national security, specifically for the Republic of Lithuania, emanating from the Russian Federation and its closest ally in the war against Ukraine, the Republic of Belorussia.