The Impact of Russia's Alternative Future Developments on Estonian Security
Abstract
The position of the Russian Federation has changed
as a result of the war of aggression against Ukraine, which started on February 24, 2022.
Not all threats and opportunities have yet been realized, but they undoubtedly affect
global security. This impact is not evenly distributed, and more pressure falls on Russia’s
neighbors.
Description
Introduction ;1. Background: The road to war in Ukraine ; 2. Methodology and structure of the analysis ; 3. Diagnosis: Description and analysis of the current situation ; 3.1. Government and authorities, international relations ; 3.2. Economy and business elite ; 3.3. Special services ; 3.4. Military power ; 3.5. Organized crime ; 4. Forecast: The role of factors in shaping Russia's future ; 4.1. Government and authorities, international relations ; 4.2. Economy and business elite ; 4.3. Special services ; 4.4. Military power ; 4.5. Organized crime ; 5. Russia's possible future scenarios and their impact on Estonia ; 5.1. First scenario (base scenario): No substantial change in Russia ; 5.2. Second scenario: The fourth Smuta and possible disintegration of Russia ; 5.3. Third scenario: The political elite changes, and Russia democratizes ; 5.4. Fourth scenario: Russia becomes an autocratic superpower ;
6. Important conclusions and main recommendations for Estonia https://doi.org/10.15158/99wh-c506 ETIS 2.5